2/19/2019

2/19/2019 – Grant Velde    

The USDA’s Outlook Forum, “Growing Locally, Selling Globally,” will take place on February 21st-22nd. The USDA projected net farm income in 2019 at $77.6 billion, which is an increase of $8.4 billion from 2018. There is hope that the year round E15 rule will be completed by the end of summer.

The forecast for Northern and Central Brazil is for scattered rain next week and is expected to slow soybean harvest. The rain is likely too late for full season corn and beans, but will improve conditions for the safrinha (2nd crop) corn. Soybean harvest is estimated to be 36% complete. AgRural has estimated total soybean production down to 112.5 mmt.      

The forecast in Argentina is for hot/dry through next Wednesday and then a cool front triggers thunderstorms from the South (Thursday) to the North (Monday). The Rosario Exchange increased its corn production is estimate 2.5 mmt to 46.5 mmt and soybean production by 2 mmt to 52 mmt. It is estimated that 5% of the corn crop has surplus soil moisture and pollination is estimated to be at 60%.  

On Tuesday the 19th: March 19 corn at 375.50 (resistance @ 379.00 and support @ 371.00) March 19 beans at 905.25 (resistance @ 914.00 and support @ 902.00) March 19 Minn. wheat at 571.25 (resistance @ 579.00 and support @ 570.50). Locally: corn basis steady and bean basis steady. FCE - Hanley Falls cash market: Jan. 19 corn @ 3.41 cash (-.34 basis) / Jan. 19 beans @ 8.11 cash (-.95 basis). Current futures spread: corn (March 19 to July 19 @ .16) and beans (March 19 to July 19 @ .27 1/4). FCE – Hanley Falls Oct. 19 corn $3.50 and Oct. 19 beans $8.57.

The 7th meeting between the US and China begin today in Washington, DC. There is speculation that China will approve purchases of US ethanol and DDG’s in the near future. March 2nd is the firm deadline for a trade agreement with China. If an agreement is not reached by March 2nd, an additional 15% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, will be imposed.                                                                                                                                                      

 

FCE is currently enrolling bushels towards the FCE Averager for the 2019 marketing year. Please call to enroll 507-768-3448.